我译：越南：价格上涨激起不满

越南：价格上涨激起不满

股市直落的同时，住房成本飙升

目前越南人民所面临的一个最大的问题是全国性的价格上涨，其中主要的是（进口的）粮食和石油价格。今年3月与2007年3月的价格相比，通胀率已飙升至创纪录的19％ ，为12年来最高。据越南新闻，上周六（该文写于三月），越南所有大零售商销售的奶粉的价格上升了7 ％ ，许多小商店跟上，价格增加了10％或更多。

到处通胀率在上升，而且在亚洲的许多地区尤其因为食品价格飙升而激起了抗议。

很多越南人发现依靠他们的工资生活越来越困难。一名在公共部门工作的工程师，收入只有150万盾（约75欧元），而在一些城市（如西贡），住房的价格一个月里上升200-300万之间的盾。此外，很多学生结束农历新年假期回到学校才发现他们的房费已增加一倍，目前很多人依靠他们的积蓄生活，希望危机早日结束。或他们必须干几份工作，如晚上下班后在家里开一个小店铺。

此外，通货膨胀对该国的发展有着严重的影响。其中涨价最高的是建筑物料。因为新的预算要求不能得到满足，其导致的后果是不少建筑工地已停工。油价飙升也迫使许多渔民和渔业公司停止捕鱼，因为他们无法捕到足够的鱼以补偿燃料费用。

为了对抗这种局面， 政府已下令其国有公司，特别是电力，石油，水泥和化肥行业的国有公司，至少在6月之前不涨价。它也决定削减大米出口100万吨以便能使用此水稻来降低大米价格。然而，它不得不承认它对其余的经济没有任何控制力。仍然有很大的投机活动，伴随着下一个价格上涨的每一个谣言，商家和消费者疯狂地购买以囤积。

世界上最糟糕的股票市场

同时，自今年年初开始下滑（在2008年一月至三月期间下降了37 ％ ，自去年以来已经下降了50 ％ ）的越南相对新生的股市有很多的苦痛，这使其成为世界上最糟糕的股票市场。越南经济学家中间有很多关于如何制止危机和有关经济前景的辩论。越南股市问题之一是它是由大量的小股东构成的;在thanh niên有个经济学家最近抱怨说，大约70 ％的股东是个人，而只有30 ％是金融机构，而在大部分其他经济体系里，确实有着相反的比例（ 70 ％是组织， 30 ％是个人）。这是出于如下事实，正如在中国，由于越南盾的低利率和持续贬值，很多人宁愿花他们的收入购买股票，而不是存款在银行。由于人民的销售和购买股票有点随机，这样的市场结构意味着该股市是极不稳定的，或者说当股票处在价格曲线的高位时，他们买进股票而当其处在底位时，他们售出股票，这导致整个市场波折起伏。更甚的是，看来很多人其实是在通过借钱来“玩”股票。越南现正经历的连续下跌的股市意味着很多人越来越贫困，并被迫以非常低的价格出售其股票，以至于没有什么留下以尝付其债务。同时，外国投资者赌着股票的回升并在股票价格处在如此低位时购进大量的股票。

越南政府声称，这一下降只是一个调整的结果，股市被高估了，它在过去5个月里逐渐下降是一件好事。但严肃的经济学家和交易商把它和在亚洲和其他地区发生的全球性的经济衰退联系起来。同时，越南政府正在努力与滞胀-即通货膨胀率加上经济放缓-的前景斗争，为此提出的大多的手段是通过提高利率来抑制现金盾在经济活动中的流量。此外，还发起了一项涉及政府控股公司的紧急计划，国有资本投资公司从自由下落的股票市场上购回大量的股份。这导致了股票价格的临时增高，回升500点，但自那时以来，趋势又是下降的，虽然比以前下降得慢。与此同时，外国投资者购买大量的股票，赌在今年年底前会有个回升。

此外，重要的是越南股市的暴跌可能是一个指标表明目前的'社会主义'越南社会和世界的资本主义制度融合程度之高。而开始于1929年的危机并没有对苏联产生重大影响;虽然越南仍是官方意义上的'社会主义'国家，而它是从目前的资本主义危机中受累最大的国家！

新自由主义政策

为应付这种情况，越南共产党的新主人国际货币基金组织和世界贸易组织很关心它们的仍然对如何管理一个自由市场经济有很多要进一步学习的”学生，答案是不只是需要一项措施，而需要混合的措施，其中包括减少政府的开支，甚至越南的公司开始在国外投资。通过减少政府开支，他们的意思是放弃无用的政府项目并且要合乎经济原则，这在一定意义上说，由于广泛蔓延的浪费和腐败现象，这似乎是头等重要的事。因此，中央已下令每个省委员会提交他们为了对抗通货膨胀将要废除的项目清单。然而，什么是真正的关键，这里使用了一种类似于过去几年拉丁美洲把群众扔向街头的新自由主义的政策。更为准确地说，他们希望越南继续关注改善医疗保健，教育和基础设施，然而要加快仅存的国有企业的私有化进程（1.2万家国有企业只剩下2500家 ，其余大部分也已经合资企业化，正如中国一样）。

越南媒体中提出的众多的分析和解决办法中没有社会主义的解决办法，没有谈到要控制价格或经济国有化，主张的唯一的措施就是自由主义的类型，这是很惊人的。

越南实在是一个力图显示自己为把世界资本主义从其危机中拯救出来的冠军。媒体不停地谈论越南总理阮晋勇（Nguyễn Tấn Dũng）的使命，他3月出访欧洲，从英国政府那里得到了40亿美元价值的生意，使英国成为对越南的第二大施主（阮晋勇随后访问了爱尔兰和德国）。正当世界上的资本家害怕未来不知会是怎样的时候，越南想要显示为一个外国投资的安全的避难所。

今年2月，将资助西贡的地铁网络项目的建设的是新加坡总统，芬兰总统，德国代表团（使用来自亚洲发展银行的13亿美元）。

今年3月，一个来自荷兰的代表团包括36大荷兰公司（联合利华，飞利浦等）的头头以及荷兰发展部长和合作部长还有外贸部长走上越南土地。现在荷兰是在越南的第二大欧洲投资者。

上周，一个顶级美国公司代表团（波音公司，通用汽车公司，埃克森... ）表示美国尽快将成为越南的最大的投资者。美国已经是越南的第一大贸易伙伴。


2007年涌入越南经济的外国直接投资数额估计为200亿美元，相比之下，2006年是120亿美元2005年是70亿美元。游客的上升也没有停止，与2007年相同月份相比，2008年1月至2月新增超过15 ％ 的游客来到越南，其中包括超过14 ％的是度假者，超过57 ％ 的是商务旅行（ 16万人） ，来自中国的人越来越多（增加55 ％ ）。去年旅游业甚至给越南经济带来了35亿美元。与此同时，在与当地劳务公司签定的合同下，离开越南的移居劳工已从1995年的1万增加到目前的50万，他们往往在相当恶劣的条件和比他们的目的国当地劳工得到的正常支付低得多的工资下工作。

美国联邦储备委员会的一个官员在采访中透露，她对越南政府继续进行'改革'的意愿感到很惊讶， 声称自2007年1月支持加入世贸组织（WTO）以来，向市场经济过渡现在变得'不可逆转'了，（虽然在取得正式会员之前已经做了很多）。越南政府亦承诺从明年起，在该国将有可能拥有独立的银行，外国零售商（沃尔玛等）也将被允许在该国经营。这一切表明，在当今世界全球资本主义危机的背景下，越南政府正在增加和其他国家的商业交易以及访问，试图安抚外国资本家，并欢迎他们来到胡志明（Bác Hồ）的国家。

现在在何处？

大多数评论家认为今天的危机是一个类似1970年的危机，该危机由通货膨胀和经济衰退构成;即使其中的大胆者也不敢谈论一个新的1929年。1929的危机与1930年的越南有联系，当时在该国整个南部由于伴随着危机的严重的饥荒而爆发了大规模的农民起义，并导致许多省份建立起随后被法国殖民势力粗暴镇压的农民'苏维埃'，还有就是在胡志明市的新生工业里的工人罢工。这也导致了越南共产党于1930年在克里姆林宫命令下被建立起来，这不是巧合。

在这种背景下，老的共产党将为资本主义的崩溃欢呼，甚至希望在其他国家爆发起义和革命。但目前，变革的越南“共产”党明显地决心要通过“解决”海外资本主义的问题而同时为发展国家从它们那里得到尽可能多的援助-合作伙伴之间的和平交易。在这方面，他们其实只不过追随1986年经济“改革”的路线。越南政府真正最害怕的是一个世界性的资本主义危机，该危机将使人看到外国投资的崩溃并且迫使他们自力更生来发展该国（过去60年里他们已无法做到这一点）。无疑他们也不支持在欧洲，亚洲或其他地方的任何的工人阶级运动-虽然上个月越南共产党领导人拜访玛丽-乔治•比费时重申了和法国共产党（行尸走肉的）的友谊。

在越南有很多人信仰斯大林主义的路线，声称虽然资本家有经济权力，只要共产党统治着，既共产党具有政治和社会权力，那么越南就仍然是一个'社会主义国家' -一个完全反马克思主义的陈述。越南的经济中恢复资本主义的元素发挥了一定进步作用是事实，这和它和其他真正社会主义国家以及一个有意识的国际主义政策——民主的社会主义扩大到整个地区和整个世界——结合起来的潜在的民主的社会主义越南是没有什么可以比较的。这里的关键不是经济中投入多少金钱而在于经济是如何组织的-而资本主义的马达是竞争性的;社会主义的马达是民主的-没有民主就没有创造性的群众活力而且社会主义经济注定要停滞，这可以在从战争结束到1986年的越南看到。

错误的抉择？

人们可能怀疑这是不是越南政府选择了错误的战略的一种情形：依靠资本主义来加强他们的经济，而不寄希望于当资本主义正在遭受其80年来最严重的危机而且工人阶级运动在南美洲，欧洲和亚洲势头正盛时在发达资本主义国家爆发一场革命的可能性。但是这并非一个错误的选择：它是放弃任何马克思主义意识形态的结果。很长时间以来，共产党的领导层已决定忘记马克思主义的最基本的教诲，这些教诲可被任何越南学童背诵在心！越南政府希望利用舆论宣传来“提高和教育人民” 。但如“以胡志明为榜样”或“人民群众是国家的基础”的口号只不过是空话，对大多数人来说，它们根本没有意义。

越南人民将会很快走上他们的中国兄弟姐妹的道路-群众的不满，到处存在着的导致骚乱和起义的爆发性的情绪-是极有可能的，特别是如果通胀问题不能很快解决的话。在1月，我们在越南南部看到的持续相当长时间的第一个大规模的罢工。但是，应该指出的是越南人民并没有显示出要寻求彻底的解决办法，鉴于他们中许多人仍然记得恐怖的战争和只是想有一个稳定，和平的社会。在此同时，新的革命的力量可能会来自青年，虽然在这个阶段，在他们中间，自由的感受和对西方“民主”的幻想是非常普遍。


在越南，斯大林主义的许多内容[即1官僚政治性的国有经济]依然存在，而且它仍然有可能在人民委员会和群众组织等等下重获新生，把它推向一个理智的，民主的社会主义经济。为了做到这一点，任何人都不应指望现存的“共产”党的领导，虽然在该党基层还能看到一些进步的元素。此外，时间紧迫，其定的基调是转变为一个充分的资本主义经济，以及每过一个月，这将使我们更难进行这具假设性的社会主义改造，这里工人需要的和中国和古巴一样是创建他们自己的反对资本主义和斯大林主义的斗争的组织（独立工会，政党）以便为下一阶段的严重社会动荡作好准备。更甚的是，这个党不应该只基于一个国家，而应与世界各地的发展着的斗争联系起来。

有意对我们的运动作出贡献的在越南或其他地方的任何人应该与我们联系，发送给我们文章，报告，分析等，以便为未来全球的民主的社会主义之建设做好准备。

Vietnam: price rises fuel discontent

House prices soar while stock market plummets

One of the biggest problems facing the Vietnamese people at the moment are increasing prices in the whole country, mostly (imported) food and oil prices. The inflation rate, when comparing prices in March 2007 to March this year, has soared to a record of 19 percent, the highest for 12 years. According to Vietnam News, the prices of powdered milk rose 7 percent in all the major Vietnamese retailers last Saturday (writing in March) with many small shops stepping up the trend and increasing prices by 10 percent or more.
Inflation is rising everywhere, and in many parts of Asia there have been protests particularly as food prices soar.
Many people in Vietnam find it harder and harder everyday to live on their wage. An engineer working in the public sector only gets paid 1.5 million Dong (around 75 euros). While the prices of the housing in some cities (such as Saigon) has already risen to between 2-3 million Dong a month. Also, many students have come back from Tet holidays only to find that their room fee has been doubled.
Many people at the moment are living on their savings, hoping to see an end of the crisis soon. Or they have to accumulate several jobs, like running a small shop from home at night when they're back from work.
Also, the inflation is having a serious impact on the development on the country. Among the highest increases are the prices of construction materials. As a consequence, many building sites have stopped working, because of new budget requirements which cannot be met. Soaring fuel prices have also forced many fishermen and fishing companies to remain on the ground, since they can't manage to catch enough fish to pay back the fuel.
To fight against this tendancy, the governement has ordered its state-owned companies, in the electric, oil, cement, and fertilizer sectors notably, not to increase their prices at least until June. It has also decided to cut rice exports by a million tons, in order to use this rice to lower rice prices. However, it had to admit that it has no control on the rest of the economy. And still, there is much speculation, with every rumour of a next price increase leading to frenzied buying by merchants and consumers for hoarding.

The world's worst-faring stock-market

At the same time, there is much anguish over Vietnam's relatively new-born stock market, which has been following a downwards path since the beginning of the year (down 37 percent between January and March 2008, down 50 percent since last year), making it the world's worst-faring stock market. There is much debate among Vietnamese economists as to how stop the crisis and about the perspectives for the economy. One of the problems of the Vietnamese stock market is the large number of small shareholders; one economist recently complained in Thanh Niên that about 70 percent of the shareholders are individuals, while only 30 percent are financial institutions, against the exact reverse ratio (70% organisations, 30% individuals) in most other economies. This is due to the fact that, just as in China, many people prefer to spend their income buying shares rather than deposit them at the bank, given the low interest rates and the continuous devaluation of the Vietnamese Dong. This market structure means that the stock market is very volatile, with people selling and buying shares a bit randomly, or buying when the shares are at their peak, selling when they are at the bottom of the price curve, thus amplifying the ups and downs of the general market. What is more, it appears that many people actually borrow money in order to "play" on the stock market. A continuous fall of the stock market such as Vietnam is now experiencing, means that many people are getting impoverished and are forced to sell their shares at a very low price, having nothing left to pay their debts. At the same time, foreign traders are betting hard on a recovery and buying large amounts of shares since the prices are so low.

The Vietnamese government claims that this drop is the result of a simple correction, that the stock market was overvalued, and that it is a good thing for it to have decreased gradually over the last five months. But serious economists and traders link this drop to the global recession in Asia and elsewhere. At the same time, the Vietnamese government is trying hard to fight against the prospect of a stagflation – that is, inflation combined with economic slowdown – the solution mostly put forward being to restrain the cash flow of Dongs in the economy by an increase in interest rates. There was also an emergency plan being triggered, involving a government holding company, the State Capital Investment Corporation, buying back a huge amount of shares on the free-falling stock market. This has resulted in a temporary increase in the stock values, back above the 500 points line, but since then, the tendancy is again o the low, although slowlier than before. Meanwhile, foreign investors are buying massive amounts of shares, gambling on an increase before the end of the year.

Moreover, the importance of the plunge on the Vietnamese stock market could be an indicator of how well integrated the current 'socialist' Vietnamese society is into the world capitalist system. Whereas the crisis that started in 1929 had no major impact on the USSR ; although still officially a 'socialist' country, Vietnam is now the country in the world that suffers the most from the current capitalist crisis!

Neo-liberal policy

To deal with this situation, the new masters of the Vietnamese Communist Party, that is the IMF and the WTO, concerned about their pupils who "have still much to learn about how to manage a free-market economy", answer that there needs to be not one measure, but rather a 'cocktail' of measures, which include reducing the government's spending, and even for Vietnamese companies to start investing abroad. By reducing government spending they imply the abandonment of useless government project and a rationalization, which, in a sense, seems an important matter, given the wide-spread waste and corruption. Thus, the central government has ordered every provincial committee to submit them a list of project they are going to abandon as part of the struggle against inflation. However, what is really at stake here is the use of a neo-liberal policy similar to what has thrown the masses of Latin America onto the streets during the last years. To be more precise, they would like Vietnam to keep focusing on improving healthcare, education and infrastructure, while accelerating the tempo of privatising the few remaining State entreprises (there only remains 2,500 of the previous 12,000 State-owned entreprises, with most of the remaining ones being involved in joint ventures, as in China).

It is quite striking that in the numerous analysis and solutions put forward by the Vietnamese press, no socialist solutions at all are given. Nowhere does one speak about controlling prices or nationalising the economy. The only measures advocated are of a liberal type.

Vietnam is indeed trying hard to appear as a champion to rescue world capitalism from its own crisis. The press can't stop talking about the mission of the Vietnamese Prime Minister, Nguyễn Tấn Dũng, who while touring Europe in March received a wonderful deal of about 4 billions worth of US dollars from the British government, making it the second largest donor to Vietnam (Dũng then prceeded to visit Ireland and Germany). At a time when the world's capitalists are frightened of what the future may bring, Vietnam wants to appear as a safe haven for foreign investments.

In February, it was the Singaporean President, the Finnish President, and a German delegation who will finance the project of building Saigon's subway network (with 1.3bn US dollars from the Asian Bank of Development).
In March, a delegation from Netherlands will land on Vietnamese ground, comprising the heads of 36 major Dutch companies (Unilever, Phillips and others), as well as the Dutch Minister for Development and Cooperation and the Minister for Foreign Trade. The Netherlands is now the second biggest European investor in Vietnam.
Last week, a delegation of top US corporations (Boeing, GM, Exxon...) pledged that the USA would become Vietnam's number 1 investor as soon as possible. The USA are already Vietnam's top trading partner.

The amount of foreign direct investment pouring into the Vietnamese economy was estimated to 20bn US dollars in 2007, compared to 12bn in 2006 and 7bn in 2005. While there is no let up in the rise in visitors either, with 15 percent more people arriving in January-February 2008 compared to the same months of 2007, including 14 percent more holidaymakers, and 57 percent more on business trips (160 000 people), more and more coming from China (an increase of 55 percent). Tourism indeed brought 3.5bn US dollars to the Vietnamese economy last year. At the same time, the number of migrant labourers leaving Vietnam under contract with local labour-trading firms has increased from 10,000 migrants in 1995 to 500,000 at the moment, often in really bad conditions and at a much lower wage than the one normally paid in their country of destination.

An interview of one of the American Federal Reserve's officials revealed that she was very surprised at the willingness of the Vietnamese government to carry on 'reforms', claiming that the transition to a market economy is now 'irreversible' since the adhesion to the WTO in January 2007 (although much has stil lto be done before getting full membership). The Vietnamese government has also promised that from next year on, it will be possible to have independant banks in the country, and foreign retailers (Walmart etc.) will also be allowed. All this shows that in a world context of global capitalist crisis, the Vietnamese government is multiplying the business deals and the visits to other countries, trying to reassure foreign capitalists and welcoming them on Bác Hồ's [Ho Chi Minh's] land.

Where to now?

Today's crisis is thought by most commentators to be one similar to the 1970's crisis, with combined inflation and economic downturn; although the boldest among them dare speak about a new 1929. That crisis was linked in Vietnam in 1930 to mass peasant uprisings in all the South of the country due to the rampant famine which accompanied the crisis, leading to the setting up of peasant 'soviets' in many provinces which were then brutally repressed by the French colonial forces, to workers' strikes in Saigon's new-born industries. This also led to the foundation in 1930 of the Vietnamese Communist Party, under the orders of the Kremlin, which was no coincidence.

In such a context, the old Communist Party would have cheered the collapse of capitalism and maybe even wished for uprisings and revolution in other countries. But at present, the renovated Vietnamese "Communist" Party is clearly set on the way to making the most of the crisis by 'solving' overseas capitalism's problems while getting as much aid as possible from them in order to develop the country – a peaceful exchange between partners. In this, they are actually simply following the line traced from 1986 with the 'Renovation' of the economy. What the Vietnamese government indeed fears most is a worldwide capitalist crisis which would see a collapse in foreign investment and force them to develop the country by their own means (something they have been unable to do for the last 60 years). There is also no question of supporting any working class movement in Europe, Asia or elsewhere - although Vietnam has reaffirmed friendship with the (now almost defunct) French Communist Party when visited by Marie-Georges Buffet last month.

Lots of people in Vietnam believe in the Stalinist line, claiming that while the capitalists have economic power, as long as the Communist Party rules, it has the political and social power, and Vietnam remains a 'socialist country' – a totally anti-Marxist statement. While it is true that the return of elements of capitalism in the Vietnamese economy have played a certain progressive role, this has nothing to compare with the potential a democratic, socialist Vietnam could have developed in conjunction with other genuinely socialist countries and a conscious internationalist policy – spreading democratic socialism to the whole region, and the world. The key here is not the amount of money placed in the economy, but how the economy is organised – while capitalism's motor is competition; socialism's motor is democracy – without democracy, without the creative energy of the masses, a socialist economy is doomed to stagnation, which was seen in Vietnam from the end of the war to 1986.

Wrong choice ?

One could wonder whether it is a case of the Vietnamese government choosing the wrong strategy: to rely on capitalism to reinforce their economy, without giving any trust to the possibility of a revolution in the advanced capitalist countries, at the very same time that capitalism is suffering its worst crisis for 80 years, and while the working class movement is gaining momentum in South America, Europe and Asia. But this is not the result of a wrong choice: it is rather the result of the abandonment of any Marxist ideology. It has been a long time now that the Communist Party leadership has decided to forget the most basic teachings of Marxism, that any Vietnamese school children could however recite by heart! The Vietnamese government wants to use propaganda to "raise and educate the people". But slogans such as "follow the virtuous example of Hồ Chi Minh" or "The people are the basis of the nation" are just a vacuum, they simply have no meaning for most people.

It is extremely probable that the Vietnamese people will soon follow the path of their Chinese brothers ans sisters – mass discontent, an explosive mood leading to riots and uprising here and there, especially if the inflation issue is not solved soon. In January we saw the first massive strikes for a long time in Southern Vietnam. However, it should be noted that the Vietnamese people do not appear yet to seek radical solutions, given that many still remember the horrors of the war and only wish for a stable, peaceful society. Here also, the new revolutionary force will probably come from the youth, although at this stage liberal feelings and illusions in western "democracy" are very widespread among it.

Many elements of Stalinism [i.e. a bureaucratically-run state-owned economy] still exist in Vietnam and it could still be possible to retake the current state, with its People's Committees, mass organisations, etc. and turn it towards a sane, democratic socialism. In order to do this, however, no one should count on the existing "Communist" Party's leadership, although some progressive elements could still probably be found at the base of this party. Also, time is running fast : the tempo is set for the transformation into a full capitalist economy, and every passing month means that it will be harder for us to carry this hypthetical socialist renovation. The workers need here, as in China and Cuba, to create their own organisations of struggle (independent trade unions, party) against capitalism and Stalinism, to prepare for the next period, one of harsh social unrest. What is more, this party should not be based in only one country, but should be linked to the developing struggles worldwide.

Anyone in Vietnam or elsewhere who is interested in contributing to our movement should contact us and send us articles, reports, analysis, etc. in order to prepare for the future – the building of worldwide, democratic socialism.