我译自CWI的斯里兰卡： '战争的结束'蕴含着新冲突(初稿）

斯里兰卡： '战争的结束'蕴含着新冲突
星期六， 2009年3月28日。
泰米尔人必须有权决定自己的未来

Siritunga Jayasuriya，联合社会主义党（斯里兰卡的CWI）

斯里兰卡军方控制的媒体的报道给人的感觉是这场战争几乎结束，还有就是战胜泰米尔伊拉姆猛虎解放组织(LTTE)仅仅是一个时间问题，这是在所有战争中都会撒的一种谎言。另外，还强调猛虎组织在数十年之久的内战的这个阶段正面临着失败的结局。

军队指挥官声称随着猛虎组织的行动受制于30至50平方公里范围内，战斗区仅限于一个越来越小的地区，这个说法只是现实的一种解释而已。认为与猛虎组织—一个全副武装的游击部队——的战争即将结束与相信耶和华预测世界末日一样的可疑。


在所谓的战胜了猛虎组织后，该国的东方省份事态的进程只是体现了针对为民族解放而战的游击部队实施的战争的复杂性。该区域的前猛虎组织领导人卡鲁纳的叛逃，无疑给了斯里兰卡军方一个巨大的优势。通过实际上是在枪口的威胁下进行的选举，东方的'平定'促使北方的猛虎组织退却。

国际范围的力强试图相信斯里兰卡军方的宣传，他们希望除去“恐怖主义的猛虎组织”这个眼中钉以便他们可以在这里做生意。作为这个地区的'老大'的印度急于看到战争的结束，因为在其南部地区特别是在泰米尔纳德邦（Tamil Nadu）发生的爆炸事件。


人道灾难

斯里兰卡媒体所称的“伊拉姆战争4” 现在正危险地接近困于战区的平民。几天前，斯里兰卡的55师声称击沉10艘在'海虎'的领导人 Soosai指挥下活动的船。这是另一个迹象显示猛虎组织准备不管平民伤亡把战斗进行到最后一刻。独立消息估计说，在战区仍然有近20 万人活着——或者更确切地说正在等死。他们在前所未有的情况下不得不生活在重型军事装备如迫击炮和其他火炮的环境下，这是猛虎组织设在该地区的装备并且这成为了他们的最后的希望。

不难理解为什么在这种情况下猛虎组织不允许平民离开战斗区。也许大多数平民甚而决定与猛虎组织一起留下来直至最后，因为在30年的血腥战争中，每个人都失去了他们最近的和最亲爱的人。选择离开战区就意味着选择魔鬼和深蓝色的海洋。进入斯里兰卡军方控制的所谓的安全区的人的命运就像走进集中营。每一个泰米尔人都被认定为猛虎组织嫌疑人。


由于JVP（人民解放阵线）和僧伽罗沙文主义政府正在讨论在斯里兰卡北部实施僧伽罗人的定居政策，紧张气氛陡升。斯里兰卡“边境地”已有4万名村民从政府那里得到了武器来保护自己。这些措施将保证暴力活动的进一步爆发和以这种或那种形式在斯里兰卡持续民族间的冲突。

空气中已经充溢着预想的“胜利”带来的狂喜。所有的持强硬路线的社区群体开展宣传活动说，这个军事上的胜利将是一个僧伽罗人对泰米尔人的胜利。他们还把这说成是一个难得的机会——斯里兰卡由僧伽罗统治者完成统一。


鉴于实际的局势，不能排除斯里兰卡很快将荡平猛虎组织控制的地区。但最大的问题仍然是在这之后会发生什么。甚至人们可能会说，猛虎组织将在军事上被打败，但绝对不能断定他们在政治上也将被打败，特别是当它得到了越来越多的来自泰米尔纳德邦和居住在世界各地的泰米尔人的关注和支持的情况下。


在该国南部，极端僧伽罗民族主义势力正在加紧工作以挫败任何实质性的权力转移的企图。随着战争胜利的到来，“多数主义僧伽罗佛教徒”运动将勃兴。伪马克思主义者，Janata Vimukthi Perumuna（人民解放阵线- JVP）已经开始通过实施对任何权力转移的抵制发起其具有煽动性的政策。它希望用之为当下的核心的问题而回到聚光灯下。斯里兰卡的一部分人将坚定地支持这一想法。


总统马欣达·拉贾帕克塞将踏在汹涌的波涛上，因为他准备处理战后局势。他向泰米尔少数民族提供了什么？他已经处在来自印度和其他西方大国的极端的压力下。对他来说，对猛虎组织的军事胜利很可能是短命的，因为他很快将开辟出新的政治战场。



斯里兰卡所有的泰米尔人，包括讲泰米尔语的穆斯林，必定将发现很难理解三十年的武装斗争给他们带来了什么成果。在现代背景和缺乏反对该政权的由“猛虎”呼吁的群众斗争的情况下，人们很容易走向愚蠢的死胡同般的个人恐怖主义和武装游击战术的道路。然而，必须看到灾难性战争的主要责任是资产阶级无法解决影响普通劳动者和穷人的基本问题的无能，包括不能给予泰米尔人自决权的民主权利。斯里兰卡这样的历史，特别是自从英国独立以来，明显地体现出来这一点。在20世纪50年代，泰米尔人的早期领导人只诉求泰米尔人的平等权利。僧伽罗资产阶级不接受这个要求。与此同时，还应当谴责不接手这一问题并把它与反对帝国主义、当地资本家和地主的阶级斗争连起来的磨磨蹭蹭的工人阶级领导人的背叛。


作为社会主义者，从我们工作一开始，作为联合社会主义党成员的我们（斯里兰卡的CWI）一直采用如下原则立场，既捍卫泰米尔人的自决权利以作为一个解决民族问题的重要步骤。更具体地说，目前，我们正在尽一切能力采取行动首先阻止最大的人道灾难发生到困于战争中的Mulaittivu丛林里生活的平民。斯里兰卡政府已推进以结束战争，他们已一次又一次地答应斯里兰卡新年4月之前结束战争。将近20万人的生命处于危险之中。现在国际上的工人阶级必须发出声音反对这一大规模屠杀。在印度，通过发起以 “停止屠杀泰米尔人” 的名义的运动，工人阶级和普通民众中已经形成巨大的支持（见本网站3月19日的相关文章）。我们呼吁国际上的工人和其他被压迫者加入这一运动以争取立即结束这场战争。同时也采取斗争以赢得斯里兰卡所有人的真正的民主权利。


省级选举

2月14日在斯里兰卡中部和北部中央举行了最近的省议会选举。马欣达·拉贾帕克塞的“ Sandanaya联盟”设法轻松赢得近65 ％的选票。因为战争的胜利，拉贾帕克塞仍然深受僧伽罗选民的欢迎。但是，很明显，大多数泰米尔人和穆斯林选民没有投票给拉贾帕克萨。


例如，在康提区，Sandanaya联盟在努瓦拉·伊莱雅赢得的18个议员中没有一个穆斯林和泰米尔人成员，Thondeman这个无原则的党声称代表被超级剥削的种植园工人，但它也支持拉贾帕克塞政府。它原来拥有7个议员，但这次已减为三个。另一个Rajapasa的盟友‘Sandanaya Chandrasekaran’原有三名议员，这一次，已经减少到零。所有这一切都显示了完全生活在东北以外地区的普通泰米尔人民对拉贾帕克塞政权的愤怒。


在这些选举中，联合社会主义党在5区中的3个参加了竞选。有两个其他左翼党派也参加了竞选。总的来说，在过去许多选举中，联合社会主义党已设法赢得相当于第4位的选票。在这次选举中，联合社会主义党也已经达到第4和第5位 。尽管有列于名单上的主要候选人以莫须有的罪名仍然关在监狱里，直到大选结束后才得以释放！

事实上，我们比其他左翼组织得到更多的选票。例如，在努瓦拉·伊莱雅的联合社会主义党得到了688票， '左翼阵线' （纳瓦平等社会党【the Nava Sama Samaja Party】）赢得118票，社会主义平等党获得98票。在马塔莱区，只有左翼阵线参加了竞选，他们仅得到60票。


尽管我们不喜欢在一个半独裁的情况下参加竞选，由于在该国缺乏工人阶级和左翼替代，我们不得不再次参加竞选，这一次是4月25日在西部省份（科伦坡， Gampaha和卡卢特勒区）。左翼阵线和社会主义平等党再次参加了竞选，但只在科伦坡区。

在这次选举中，联合社会主义党活动的首要目标是停止战争，而且也捍卫泰米尔人民的自决权利的生活自由，还有就是自由组建联合工会委员会以反对减薪和赢得工人阶级的要求。最近就约十九亿美元的援助款和要求工人承诺紧缩的问题与国际货币基金组织进行了讨论。考虑到国际和当地资本主义的重大困难，大的政治和阶级斗争可能很快到来。

Sri Lanka: ‘End of war’ stores up major new conflicts
Sat, 28 Mar 2009.
Tamil people must have right to decide own future

Siritunga Jayasuriya, United Socialist Party (CWI in Sri Lanka)

The understanding given by the Sri Lankan Army-controlled media that the war is almost finished, and the victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is just a matter of time, is the kind of falsehood practiced in all wars. It is, however, pertinent to emphasise that the LTTE is facing defeat in the present phase of the decades-long civil war.

The claims of the army commanders that the battle zone is restricted to an increasingly small geographical area with the LTTE operations confined to between 30 and 50 square kilometres, is only one interpretation of the reality on the ground. To think that the war with the LTTE – a heavily armed guerrilla force - will come to an end with such strategies is like believing Jehovah’s Witnesses predictions about the end of the world.

The course of events in the Eastern Province of the country, after the so-called victory over the LTTE, is just an indication of the complexity of a war conducted against a guerrilla force fighting a national liberation struggle. The defection of former LTTE leader in that area, Karuna, undoubtedly gave the Sri Lankan Army a huge advantage. The ‘pacification’ of the East, with elections carried through often literally at gunpoint, has contributed to the pushing back of the LTTE in the North.

The powers that be on an international scale want to believe the Sri Lankan Army propaganda in the hope that the “terrorist LTTE” headache will be eliminated and they can get on with doing business here. For the ‘Big Brother’ of the region, India, it is urgent that the war comes to an end because of the explosions within its southern areas especially in Tamil Nadu.

Human disaster

‘Eelam War 4’, as it has been labeled by the Sri Lankan media, is now getting dangerously close to civilians trapped in the war zone. A few days ago, the 55th Division of the SLA claimed the sinking of 10 boats operating under the command of the 'Sea Tiger' leader, Soosai. This is another indication that the LTTE is prepared to fight on till the bitter end, regardless of civilian casualties. Independent estimates say that there are still nearly 200,000 people living - or rather, waiting to die - in the war zone. They are in the unprecedented situation of having to live amongst the heavy military equipment, such as mortars and other artillery, which the LTTE has housed in the area and which constitutes their last hope.

It is not difficult to understand in this situation why the LTTE is not allowing civilians to go out of the battle zone. Maybe most of the civilians have even decided to stay with the LTTE to the end, as each of the people has lost some of their nearest and dearest in the 30 year bloody war. The choice of going out of the war zone is like choosing between the devil and the deep blue sea. The fate of people who have gone over to the so-called safe areas controlled by the SLA is like walking into concentration camps. Every Tamil is regarded as an LTTE suspect.

Tension mounts as the JVP and the Sinhala chauvinist government are discussing Sinhala settlers being implanted in the North of Sri Lanka. Already 40,000 villagers in the 'border areas' of Sri Lanka's South have been given arms by the government to protect themselves. Such measures are a guarantee of further outbursts of violence and a continuation of the national conflict in Sri Lanka in one form or another.

The euphoria of the envisaged “victory” is already in the air. All the hard-line communal groups are campaigning with a propaganda which says this military victory will be a victory of the Sinhalese over the Tamils. They also describe this as a rare occasion - Sri Lanka being unified by a Sinhalese ruler.

Given the situation on the ground, it cannot be ruled out that the SLA will move in to clear the LTTE-controlled areas sooner rather than later. But the big question remains what happens after that. Even if one can say that the LTTE will be defeated militarily, it is by no means certain that they will be defeated politically, especially with the growing concerns and support that is witnessed in Tamil Nadu and among the Tamil Diaspora around the world.

In the south of the country, the extreme Sinhala nationalist forces are working overtime to thwart any attempt to introduce any substantial devolution of power. The “majoritarian Sinhala Buddhist” campaign will get shriller as the war victory arrives. The pseudo Marxist, Janata Vimukthi Perumuna (People's Liberation Front - JVP) has already started its gutter-stirring politics by building resistance to any power devolution. It hopes to come back to the limelight using that as its core issue at the present time. A section of the SLA will strongly support this idea.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa will have to ride new rough waters as he prepares to address the post-war situation. What is his offer to the Tamil national minority? He is already under extreme pressure from India and other western powers. Military victory over the LTTE is likely to be short-lived for him as he will open up new political battle zones very soon.

All Tamils, including Tamil-speaking Muslims, in Sri Lanka must be finding it hard to comprehend what the three decades of armed struggle has achieved for them. It is easy to point to the follies and the blind alley of individual terrorism and armed guerrilla tactics in the modern context and the lack of appeal by the 'Tigers' for mass struggle against the regime. Nevertheless the primary responsibility for the disastrous war must be seen in the inability of the capitalist class to solve the basic issues affecting ordinary working and poor people, including granting the democratic right of Tamils to self-determination. The history of this in Sri Lanka, especially since independence from the British, is glaringly manifested. The early leaders of the Tamils, during the 1950s, asked only for equal rights for the Tamil language. This was not acceptable to the Sinhala capitalist class. At the same time, betrayals by dilly-dallying working class leaders have to be equally condemned for not taking up this issue and linking it with the class struggle against imperialism, local capitalists and landlords.

As socialists, we in the United Socialist Party (CWI in Sri Lanka) have taken a principled stand, from the very inception of our work, to defend the right to self-determination of Tamil people as a major step ton the road towards solving the national question. More concretely, at present we are campaigning first and foremost to stop the biggest human disaster happening to the war trapped civilians in the Mulaittivu jungles. The Sri Lankan government has pushed forward to finish the war; they have promised again and again to end it before the Sri Lankan New Year in April. Nearly 200,000 people lives are at stake. Now the working class internationally must organise their voice against this mass slaughter. Already tremendous support is building among the working class and ordinary people in India through a campaign launched under the name “Stop the Slaughter of Tamils” (See article of 19 March on this site). We appeal to workers and other oppressed sections internationally to join this campaign and fight to end this war immediately. Take up the fight also to win genuine democratic rights for all in Sri Lanka.

Provincial elections

The last provincial council elections were held on14 February in central and north central Sri Lanka. Mahinda Rajapaksa's ‘Sandanaya Alliance’ managed to win easily with nearly 65% of votes cast. Rajapaksa is still popular among the Sinhala voters because of the prospect of a war victory. But it is clear that the majority of Tamil and Muslim voters have not voted for Rajapaksa.

In Kandy district, for example, Sandanaya has not got a singleTamil or Muslim member amongst the 18 councillors they won. In Nuwara Eliya, the unprincipled party of Thondeman claims to represent the super-exploited plantation workers there, but he also supports the Rajapaksa government. It had 7 councillors but this time it has been reduced to three. Another ally of Rajapasa's, ‘Sandanaya Chandrasekaran’, had three councillors. This time it has been reduced to nil. All this shows the anger against the Rajapaksa regime by ordinary Tamil people who live totally outside the North East.

In these elections the USP contested 3 out of 5 districts. There were two other left parties who also contested. In general in the last many elections the USP has managed to come in 4th place. Similarly, in this election also the USP has come 4th and 5th. This is in spite of having leading candidates on the list held in prison on trumped up charges and only released after the election was over!

In fact, we got more votes than other left organisations. For example, in Nuwara Eliya the USP received 688 votes, the 'Left Front' (of the Nava Sama Samaja Party) won 118 and the Socialist Equality Party got 98 votes. In Matale district, the Left Front contested alone and they got just 60 votes.

Even though we are not happy contesting elections in a semi-dictatorial situation, because of the lack of a working class and left alternative in the country, we have been compelled to contest the elections again, this time in Western Province (Colombo, Gampaha and Kalutara districts) on April 25. The Left Front and the SEP are contesting again but only in the Colombo district.

In this election, the USP is campaigning above all to stop the war but also to defend the right of self-determination of the Tamil people, the freedom to live and to form joint trade union councils to fight against cuts and win the demands of the working class. The recent discussions with the International Monetary Fund about a $1.9 billion hand-out also involved promises of austerity for workers. Big political and class battles could open up quite quickly, given the major difficulties of capitalism locally and internationally.