展望（中国国家性质）

展望
Perspectives
“THE STATE SECTOR today”, writes Vincent, “is a lever for developing the capitalist economy”, providing a framework of basic industries and infrastructure. This is evidently true. The regime is carrying out, under contemporary international conditions, the barbarous tasks of ‘primitive accumulation’, historically required as the basis for capitalist growth. There is a brutal process of forced urbanisation, as the poor peasantry are being driven from the land and are forced to seek low-paid work under atrocious conditions in the sweatshops and construction sites of the big cities. In the long run, if this development continues in an uninterrupted way, it would produce a ‘fully’ capitalist society. But this depends on perspectives.
文森特写道：“今天的国有部门是一个发展资本主义经济的杠杆” ，为基础工业和基础设施提供了一个框架。这显然是正确的。该政权在当代国际条件下正在执行'原始积累'的野蛮任务，资本主义增长历史性基础性的需要。有一个强迫城市化的残酷的过程，贫穷的农民正在被赶出土地，被迫在血汗工厂和大城市的建筑工地的恶劣的工作条件下寻求低工资的工作。从长远来看，如果这种发展以一个不间断的方式继续下去，这将产生一个'完全'的资本主义社会。但是，这有待观察。



If there were to be a long period of rapid growth in the world capitalist economy (continuing, for instance, the record 5% per annum growth of 2002-07), accompanied by 10% a year growth in the Chinese economy, then China could, theoretically, move steadily towards a ‘fully’ capitalist economy. At a certain point, on that basis, a strengthened Chinese bourgeoisie would come into conflict with the ex-Stalinist Bonapartist state and attempt to take direct control of a Chinese capitalist society (though the bourgeoisie would be increasingly challenged by a strengthened working class). Given the current implosion of the global capitalist finance system and the beginnings of a world recession, that does not seem the most likely perspective.
如果世界资本主义经济有一个漫长的快速增长的时期（例如，2002-07年连续的以创记录的5 ％的年增长率增长），伴随着中国经济以每年10 ％增长率增长，那么中国理论上可能稳步迈向'完全的'资本主义经济。在某个时刻，在此基础上，巩固了的中国资产阶级将与前斯大林主义波拿巴国家发生冲突并试图直接控制中国的资本主义社会（虽然资产阶级将越来越受到强大了的工人阶级的挑战） 。鉴于目前全球资本主义金融体系的爆裂，并开始了世界经济衰退，这似乎不是最有可能的前景。
If there is a prolonged world economic crisis, on the other hand, which would inevitably result in a serious downturn in the Chinese economy, the regime could be forced to intervene in the economy to prevent economic and social collapse, and head-off a revolutionary challenge from the Chinese workers and peasants. The Chinese leaders have already taken note of the abrupt swing of the US government from free-market fundamentalism to state intervention and the nationalisation of failed financial institutions. Faced with the prospect of failed industries collapsing, it is likely that the Chinese state will intervene and take them over. Given the history of the Chinese state and the existing extent of state ownership, this is likely to be on a bigger scale than in the major capitalist states.

另一方面，如果世界经济危机长期化，这将不可避免地造成中国经济的严重衰退，该政权可能会被迫干预经济，防止经济和社会崩溃，并制止来自中国的工人和农民的一种革命性的挑战。中国领导人已经注意到美国政府突然由自由市场原教旨主义回转到对经营不善的金融机构进行国家干预和国有化。面对经营失败的产业崩溃的前景，中国国家很可能将进行干预并接管它们。鉴于中国国家的历史和国家所有制的现有程度，这可能以比主要资本主义国家更大的规模进行。
The Chinese regime (as with Bismarck, the tsarist autocracy, and other Bonapartist regimes in the past) faces the problem that, in ‘breeding’ a new capitalist class in China, it is also breeding a new working class. Already there is a high level of social protest and strikes, often brutally repressed by the regime. In coming years the Chinese workers will increasingly form independent trade unions and their own political parties. The advanced layer of workers will in the course of struggles prepare to overthrow the regime and sweep away the capitalists, Chinese and foreign.
在中国政权（和俾斯麦、沙皇独裁政府以及过去的其他波拿巴政权一样）面临的问题是在中国“培育”一个新的资产阶级的同时它也培育了一个新的工人阶级。已经有一个高水平的社会抗议和罢工，这些往往被该政权残酷镇压。在未来几年的中国工人将越来越多地形成独立工会和自己的政党。工人的先进的层将在斗争过程中准备推翻该政权和扫除中国和外国的资本家。
We cannot predict the timescale of such events. But we should not take it for granted that China will automatically become a ‘fully’ capitalist society. In the coming years, events and the influence of Marxist ideas will give rise to a revolutionary movement aiming to overthrow the regime, sweep away capitalism, and re-establish nationalised property relations and planned production – this time under the democratic control of the working class and linked to an international perspective for a world socialist economy.
我们无法预测这类事件的时间表。但是，我们不应想当然地认为中国将自动成为一个'完全'的资本主义社会。在今后几年内，发生的事件和马克思主义思想的影响力将产生革命性的行动旨在推翻该政权和扫除资本主义以便重新确立国有财产关系和计划生产-这次是在工人阶级的民主控制下并与世界社会主义经济的国际前景连接起来。